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Latest Current Situation in Burma 

  [A special talk given by a very distinguished Professor of All Ethnic International Open University, AEIOU]

                        Since 1962, when the military first came to power, Burma is still under military dictatorship. People are suffering without any human rights, any freedom of expression, no freedom of press, no freedom of assembly and sky rocketing commodity prices, horrible education system, very poor health care, so the country’s situation is almost the same of course there are some differences from the situation of 1962 and the situation of today. What are the differences? Difference is not very much, they make some changes very much, superficial changes and cosmetic changes they tried to make. So if we look, we want to see this situation, we can see that the comparison between the two situations 1962 and now. In 1962 military junta, they try to change their policy failed and they try to change their policy, they try to transfer power to the people, the transfer their power to the people, the transform their party from the cadre party to mass party, their party is BSPP party and finally they promulgated a constitution in 1974. So, called transfer the power the military to civilian. General Ne Win to U Ne Win, in 1974. And the name of country is Socialist Republic of Union of Burma. Although it is neither Socialist nor Union, They try to change they make their impression that they want to change. After they came to power in 1962, But if you look at today’s situation, it has been already 17 years since 1988. And 1988 is a watershed in Burmese politics for some cosmetic changes, 1988’s popular people uprising through out the country paved way for coming of the new military junta but not for democratization. These have been some hope of democratization during the immediately after 1988 uprising, but the hopes have not faded away in this moment.

            Let’s Look at the military situation at the moment, Senior General Than Shwe become a new Ne Win, he is the sole military dictator, the ministries and government had no authority at all, to make important decision for the country. Health minister has to refer to Senior General Than Shwe, if they want to see the foreign donor whether they should allow the foreign NGO to get access to the area of their project. And, education minister has to see or to ask Senior General Than Shwe’s permission whether to close or open the school. And everybody has to refer for having important decision to senior Senior General Than Shwe. So Senior General Than Shwe is the sole authority of the country. Politically, nothing had been done to move the country to democratization, Even the national convention has been delayed to draft the constitution although the guide line and the basic principles has already been set out according to the military wish. Why they delay to continue the process of drafting constitution? I think they realized this constitution without participation of the opposition and the ethnic group won’t work and it won’t have any credibility for the country or in the international community as well. They realize this, that’s why they delayed.

            But they prefer to be ran the country on there own, especially s Senior General Than Shwe and top Generals, they don’t want to share their power with the elected civilian politicians. And absolute authority, there are rumors, Senior General Than Shwe consider himself is a monarch as a king, but it is becoming more real rather than a rumor. If you look at the name of new capital, it is Nay Pyi Daw. Short form of Min Nay Pyi Daw, that means royal capital of the king. That shows that behaving himself like a king. And the some diplomats, they are very knowledgeable about Burma. They consider the problem with Burma is not who is running the country, it doesn’t matter, whether a king or monk or a woman or soldier. It is not a problem at all according to their experiences, the diplomats. The problem is mis-management. So, Senior General Than Shwe has lieutenants who don’t know how to run the country. To seize the power, it is very easy for them, those who have the gun, that’s quite easy, but to run the country, to make a country develop and peaceful and stability is very difficult for those who des not understand the management. So, some think the problem of Burma is more of the management problem rather than the personality of their ruler.

            The military, they have even if not a belief, it is a perception, sometimes perception is more important than a reality, real situation. They have perception that they are doing to serve the country that they are doing best to the country that they are doing best to the country that is their perception. Off course, they do built road and bridges and hospitals, schools and public buildings through around the country. And they have tried and successfully brought majority of the armed ethnic groups into cease-fire agreement with them. Name of their predecessor no other groups before them had their able to do this much. You have to accept that as a face. At the same time they are believe that they are the only people who can save the country from disintegration. And it’s getting stronger and stronger because of their activity. But politically, they have done nothing to move the country. So, the development of the country in the scene in this country is not just building roads, and bridges and the buildings. That is the people’s freedom, freedom of expressions not only the live hood but also education, an academic freedom, those things are also equally important.

            The military including Senior General Than Shwe, they are quite aware that know the people do not like them. They know that they are not popular among the people. But they compare to Daw Aung San Su Kyi, Daw Aung San Su Kyi is very popular. They interpret the opposition of the people, this is the human nature to oppose the authorities that is their concept, and they thought it is because of the human nature. Not because they are not doing enough for the country. They don't have support of the people.

            Simply because of the human nature all the human being don't like their authority, that is their interpretation of the people opposition. So, why people like Daw Aung San Su Kyi? In that case, they interpret from the Angle, simply because she is the daughter of General Aung San, the national hero of the country. So, Daw Aung San Su Kyi is popular because of her father. She has not done anything for the country in their mind, but we are doing a lot for country but people don't like us because of the people's nature, they like Daw Aung San Su Kyi because of Aung San's daughter. And what try to do is so, wipe Aung San's name from the Burmese history. So, They never mention, refer, say anything about the performance of Aung San in the history and in bringing the country to independence from colonial rule. And in Pyinmana, so-called Nay Pye Daw, according to their name, there are three very tall statues, the national heroes and the unifier of the Union of Burma according to the history, the first is King Anaw ya tar of Bagan, the second is the Bayit Naung, and the third one is Along Mintayar of Kong Baung Dynasty. Only three statues, there are no statue for General Aung San. And there is a joke about that; maybe the fourth place will be Than Shwe. So, they are trying to wipe out Aung San's name. So, that's shows that they don't care even Aung san, so, forget about Daw Aung San Su Kyi. She is nothing, compare to her father. So they don't care Daw Aung San Su Kyi. They will not going to talk to NLD, in their eye, NLD is their enemy. They are the military soldiers, soldier never talks to their enemy, and they only fight with the enemy. They ask the enemy, force the enemy to surrender. So, until and unless NLD surrender, they won't talk to NLD. That is their mentality. Very simple, whatever statement they issue, they won't talk to NLD. That is their mentality.

            And another thing is NLD is the agent of the invader, they perceive they are in danger of foreign invasion. Foreign invasion is possible in the assistance of NLD they think. Recent events in the world teaching a lot, the situation of Iraq, and Afghanistan, one day, the same fate may be upon them, they are thinking.

            So, that's why, they are expanding their military strength. Some people think now, they are already almost 400000 soldiers. Some people interpret it is to suppress the local or domestic or ethnic rebels. It's not true. Four hundred thousand soldier, more than enough to suppress the ethnic peoples. Ethnic peoples have not much strength to compare to Burmese army. So, why are they expanding the military? They are expanding the military to save the country from the foreign invaders. So, the foreign invaders, the potential aggressors, who will invade Burma? In their mind, it is the US. US may launch their attack direct to them or launch a proxy war. They will ask some (let out khan) country on behalf of them, that is the proxy war, so, who will be the US proxy? The US agent is Thailand, in their mind, they think, one day, it is possible. The US may launch an attack through Thailand, or direct attack like they do in the Iraq or Afghanistan. Whether it is true or not. It is their perception. And they see the NLD members, the agents, will point out the targets, the weapons are very advanced in the US, they can find and hit the target directly if they know the target. Members insider the country may point out, give the information to the invader, so, some of the regional commanders are instructing according to some reliable sources, to find out the NLD members in their area, once there was an attack, you must already killed, terminated, removed all these peoples. That is their ambition of building military.

            And another lesson at the same time you should see that, their buying weapons from the Russia now, China weapons are not enough to save their country against the US invasion, that's why they are trying to buy advance weapons from Russia. And another lesson, the military learning from international events now it is, it is quite likely to be put them on international trial for their human rights abuses. Once they are away from or they are don't have power, so, they have to keep power as long as they can. The truth and reconciliation is out of question in their mind. They don't like reconciliation, if they want to go through reconciliation process like South Africa, one have to say they committed mistakes. The junta never dream, they will never do that. Truth and reconciliation is totally impossible. So, the only option is put on trial, they won't transfer power. So, one day, they have to face as Pinochae in the trial. So, it is example for them, so, they will never relinquish their power. That is the lessons they are learning from international examples. So, when the military is not doing, anything for reconciliation of power sharing with the opposition, ongoing the country, toward democratic process? What are the opposition doing? Lets look at the opposition inside the country first, the NLD, the National League for Democracy, almost everybody voted for this party in 1990 election.

            Honestly speaking, this is not because of the NLD political activities of achievements. This is simply because of the name of Daw Aung San Su Kyi. Daw Aung San Su Kyi is the popular simply because of General Aung San. The NLD has been paralyzed and since their leader Daw Aung San Su Kyi has been separated from the party since she has been under house arrest. And not only NLD, some popular ethnic parties, as SNLD, more or less, the political parties in Burma, emerged not because of the political scene of the entire people, more or less because of the charisma and the personality of one or a group of individuals. In that case of NLD, that depends on the charisma and personality of Daw Aung San Su Kyi and maybe Gen Tin Oo, it is actually more or less depend on the charisma of Daw Aung San Su Kyi and if you look at SNLD, Kun Htun Oo and Sai Nyut Lwin, some charismatic group of individuals depend on them. So, since these leaders, the nature of the politics in Burma, because peoples are not much politicized before they don't have much neutral ideas. So, once these leaders were in jail or separated from the party, the party is nothing. NLD minus Daw Aung San Su Kyi is zero. So, SNLD minus Kun Htun Oo and some leader is nothing. That is the equation. So, they are paralyzed, so, what will be doing, even during the day Daw Aung San Su Kyi and the leaders were with the party. What they have doing? They are more reactive than proactive. Proactive means they have to initiate. They have to do something on their own initiative they have to begin doing something. That is proactive, but, NLD and SNLD, all other political parties in Thai-Burma. Yes, they are very much reactive. They do something whenever somebody says something; they issue a statement in response to that activity. These sorts of things, so, people may ask what can they do, other than reactive activity. Of course, they can do a lot. Peoples are always willing to listen to their leader. They always want to hear from their leader. Everybody are interest what Daw Aung San Su Kyi will tell them, especially, on the special occasions like Union Day, Independence Day and other days. So, they issue the statement, they didn't mention to the people. They say to the military, give more freedom, like that, they are directing the statement, addressing to the military authorities rather than to the people. They are not talking to the people. Of course doing that ten years ago, we can see, Daw Aung San Su Kyi and her audience in front of her house, there are some meetings twice a week. So, she focuses the issue but not that much of the people. Only she focuses to the crowd but not the whole country. So, what should be happen? They should focus more to the leaders not to the followers of the country instead of directing to the military authority.

Another thing, When Daw Aung San Su Kyi was in jail, current leaders of NLD are quite elderly, and they have very strong military background, all of them are generals close to Gen Ne Win, so, they don't have any proactive ideas to move the country or to move their party forward. They consider themselves as caretakers of NLD party. Care takers of NLD during the absence of the leader Daw Aung San Su Kyi. They don't want to do own initiative or proactive progress. They have enough experience to be like that. When Daw Aung San Su Kyi was first put under house arrest, they attended the National Convention and they actively participated in the discussing process. And when Daw Aung San Su Kyi came out, they have to stop attending National Convention. It is humiliation for the leaders. They won't do the same thing. They just keep the party. That is just looking the party's existence. Just care taking. So, NLD or SNLD without leaders are not moving forward.

            So, lets look at the opposition in exile, outside of the country. The opposition in exile, they call themselves, oppositions in the liberated area, how many inches of land as they liberated? Of course Manerplaw is liberated area before and Laiza is liberated area. But NLD (L.A) San Francisco, NLD (L.A) Tokyo, NLD (L.A) in the New York, Washington, the areas are not liberated area, these are territory of other people's country. The name itself is wrong. And the opposition movement, outside the country, they are not revolutionaries. 'Revolutionaries' is too strong word for them, but they are not even politicians. They are going on the band-wagon. Daw Aung San Su Kyi is very popular who ever, not necessarily to be some particular name, I don't want to mention their name, you can become MP during the day in 1990 election, if you hold Daw Aung San Su Kyi's band-wagon. You are wearing kamaut of NLD; definitely you will win, no matter who you are. So, most of the oppositions, outside the country, they became makeshift, politician, once they are out of the country, they don't have any idea. They are also very much reactive. They don't do any initiatives, but when I asked as journalist, 'what are they doing?'  They explained 'Oh! We are lobbying for foreign supports. I don't think the foreign countries, international communities is supporting NLD because of their activities because of Daw Aung San Su Kyi as well. So, some academics even criticized the US government, their criticism is not wrong. Some extent, it's true. You, The US foreign policy on Burma, is center only one individual, Daw Aung San Su Kyi, when Daw Aung San Su Kyi say something, US policy change to suit Daw Aung San Su Kyi's comment. The exile government and opposition groups based in US think they are doing a lot, but it is because of Daw Aung San Su Kyi, US government is changing their policy to Burma. And others, some people, based in Thailand, a lot of oppositions, what are they doing? They are doing business rather than politics. They are trying to get foreign assistances, funding for their projects, they are not doing enough I think. They don't have their own programs how to democratize the country, how to move the country forward.

             And another force of politics before is the ethnic peoples, groups, and armed groups. They have most of the groups, so far, has cease-fire agreement with the military. That is also very big mistake, on the path of. I don't think Burma, except from the Burmese military could be able to change the country, by means of armed forces. Oppositions can never compete the strength of Burmese military. So, they won't be able to change, they can never use their gun to change the government, because there was fighting since independence. And one occasion in early 1950, government of Union of Burma is know as internationally, Yangon Government. The whole country was under the rebel control. Even then, they failed to drop out the government. Now it is very difficult for armed groups to attain that level of control. The armed forces are useful to some extent, to bring the military to the table, to the dialog. They can give pressure, fighting through out the country and they can bring the military to table to talk for political agreement. But since majority of ethnic groups were signed the cease-fire agreement. There is no way, the ethnic groups can force the military government to bring to the table, as I explained to you, they won't talk to the enemy.

            The last resource for the opposition is the foreign countries and the international community. Some people thought the US will come and save them, some people think UN and some people think ASEAN, China and EU. But I don't think they can help the Burmese people. The Burmese people can only help themselves. Look at ASEAN; ASEAN's policy is to have consensus or unanimous agreement among themselves. So, it is very difficult for ASEAN to say Burmese military to change the country policy to ward democracy. What can they do? They can handle only in a very gentle way. OK, come on Burmese Junta.................They will never twist their arms. That is the ASEAN policy. The latest thing ASEAN has done is to send special representative to see the real situation of Burma. But Burmese government very reluctantly accept the representative, but they didn't mention as ASEAN representative, they called him as Malaysian foreign minister, that is all their mention. So, it is also very much humiliating our situation for ASEAN. They can't do anything. And they reviewed the situation during the recent retreat, in Bali, they are foreign ministers, they are not decision-making authorities, they have to refer to the summit meeting, summit of the heads of the states. They will wait until the summit. Ok, next time, they have to do something. Summit 1,2 because ASEAN need Burma, more than, Burma needs ASEAN. ASEAN want to show this is very united regional organization. So, all ten countries are the members of ASEAN, esp. Burma has the long history of friendship with China. So, if ASEAN kick out Burma from them, Burma will get close to China. That is the ASEAN concern, they won't do. That much strong. And the UN, now the people are waiting for UNSC. I don't think they will able to say that. In UNSC, five members have veto power, they can just neglect and it won't pass UNSC. China always defends Burma in UNSC. Even if China doesn't say, China is nothing, this time, Russia is there already. Russia is very close to Burma at the moment, Russian said again, not only Burma needs Russia but also Russia needs Burma because Russia former allied Vietnam is getting closer to US. So, they want to replace Burma in the place of Vietnam. Burma will become Vietnam of Russia in South East Asia. So, even if China did not use veto in UNSC, Russia is likely to use Veto in defending Burma in UNSC. So if you look at all situation, military is not doing democratization, NLD can't do anything opposition outside the country is not along anything, international community cannot do anything. So, it is very much. You may think. I am very pessimist. But it is the reality. So, we have to think, how can we move the country toward democratization. I think this is the people themselves has to realize instead hoping messiah to save our land.

            Don't expect that, it's the people themselves has to think, if the people realize this sort of situation. Once they want to move their country, they want to be free, they want to enjoy freedom of enjoy human rights like other people. They have to do their initiatives. That's all I have to say. Thank you very much for your patience.

[For the personal safety of the professors who are risking their lives by volunteering at AEIOU near Thai-Burma border, we cannot describe the names of the professors here.]

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