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A Theory of Mass Social Movements

            There are several metatheories of mass social movements.  Setting them aside, I would like to explore a theory of mass social movements which may be the most relevant to Burmese political context.  Mass social movements here refer to what the Burmese call ayaedawbon or popular uprisings as well as tawhlanyae or revolutions.  The difference between the two is that the former may or may not aim to overthrow the state apparatus while the latter necessarily begins with an objective to replace the state apparatus with a vision for what revolutionaries perceive is a better future.  A mass social movement may be a reformative or a single-issue campaign, as in ecological protests, but a revolution is designed to put an end to an existing government.  The ancient Burmese word taw-hlan-yae carries the fullest sense of revolution since it is made up of taw, referring to the state apparatus or monarchy, hlan, meaning ‘to turn upside down’ or ‘to overthrow,’ and yae, a cause.  Thus tawhlanyae  is a cause to overthrow a regime.  All revolutions are mass social movements but not all mass social movements are revolutions.  In that light student demonstrations which swept through France in March 2006 are mass social movements while people power uprisings in Nepal in April 2006 are mass social movements as well as a revolution.  But how do ayaedawbons or mass social movements occur? 

            An eminent Burman economist, who does not want to be named, presents his theory of mass social movements in the model of boiling water in a kettle.  He argues that mass uprising of the 8-8-1988 scale are inevitable in Burma when all the circumstances are ripe for it.  He compares the process leading to mass social movements to that of bringing water to a boil.  He states that, boiling water requires not just heat from outside but air pressure from inside the kettle.  At the temperature of around 60 C, a bubble or two may come up to the water surface in the kettle.  As the temperature increases outside the kettle, the pressure inside it will increase and there will be more bubbles.  To bring water to the boiling point of 100 C, one has to keep the heat outside stable and the air pressure inside the kettle up.  When all the circumstances are good, when the heat is right outside and the pressure is tight inside the kettle, the water will boil and the kettle will make a hissing noise. 

            The boiling point or ‘the point of bust’ occurs when people decide that enough is enough.  It occurred in colonial Burma in 1938 when Marxist student leaders Ba Hein and Ba Swe were arrested.  The Marxist revolution then was called the 1300 Ayaedawbon, 1300 being the Burmese calendar year for 1938.  The point of bust occurred again fifty years later in socialist era in March 1988 when student Phone Maw was killed.  His fellow students strove to raise the pressure inside the country while they asked the international media to heat the country from outside.  The flames of pro-democracy protests were brutally beaten out when the military took over power.  The 1996 student uprising and numerous other small protests which have happened since 1988 in Burma could be seen as bubbles which have come up to the surface.  They have yet failed to bring the country to the boiling point.   

            Since then the pressure has been slowly building up in the country.  The latest was the ultimatum given to the military government by Chin dissident Dr. Salai Tun Than.  Dr. Tun Than was sentenced to seven-year imprisonment for his solo protest in Rangoon in November 2001.  The Burmese junta did not want to make the septuagenarian a martyr.  He was released after eighteen months when he staged a hunger strike in jail.  Now exiled in the United States, he has given an ultimatum to the Burmese generals; surrender the state power to the people by 21 May 2006 or he will fly to Rangoon on or after 19 June 2006 to give himself up as a ‘sacrificial lamb’ for the betterment of Burma.  He has also given the Burmese people a detailed plan of actions if the junta fails to comply with his demand.  In what he calls ‘general disobedience movement’, he urges the Burmese people to remain in their houses on Saturdays from 27 May to 17 June in honour of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.  Altruistic, unstoppable and determined as he is, he will need all the support from outside Burma and a huge following from inside the country if his righteous cause is to be accomplished.

            The military junta on their part counters such pressures by numerous hard methods of repression and various soft methods of propaganda, and other means, such as salary increases for government functionaries.  It should be noted that the existence of a legal opposition party diminishes the chance of popular protests since political dissent is usually channeled through the opposition party.  This may explain why the military government will not eliminate or outlaw the opposition party National League for Democracy (NLD).  As long as the generals can keep the NLD down, the threat that the NLD poses to the state apparatus is nothing compared to the prospect of a nationwide uprising.  They will keep the NLD’s charismatic leader Aung San Suu Kyi under house-arrest as long as they can, since they see her as the only individual who can incite a mass movement in Burma.  The fact that people followed her in drove on her campaign trips during her limited time of freedom has enormously shaken the sense of security and sapped the self-confidence of the Burmese generals. 

            The Burmese generals, therefore, find themselves on the horns of multiple dilemmas: proscribing the NLD will increase the likelihood of a mass uprising while keeping it legal will perpetually reminds them of their illegitimate rule.  Setting Aung San Suu Kyi free will increase the likelihood of mass movements, yet destroying her will not only make her a martyr but also cause the point of bust, the birth of an ayaedawbon.  Handing over the state power to the people may cost their luxurious lives, yet maintaining their status quo will eventually culminate in an ayaedawbon when the pressure reaches the boiling point.

Ko Ko Thett

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Comments

Ruslana, Australia, said _

                             This is a thoughtful article which adds to understanding Burmese politics and asks many relevant questions. Let's have more articles,  please.

Raluca Enescu, Romania said _

                              Hi! like your theory very much; you're definitely right and I'm thinking, maybe, it could help me also for my projects at the excellence Center, where I'm studying philosophy!

B. B. D. said _

                            Now May 20th: any news of Dr. Tun Than?

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