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Burma Digest Current Issue

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s Chances of Becoming UN Secretary General

Reports says Asian candidates favoured to succeed Kofi Annan

Once the early favorite to replace Kofi Annan as UN Secretary General, Bill Clinton is now losing ground to other potential candidates. The star power of the former U.S. President has been overshadowed by growing demands from Asians who believe it is time for a leader from their region to head the world organisation.

Clinton's odds have slipped from 5-2 in January to 10-1 currently. While there is little doubt that Clinton would bring an unparalleled track record of political success and proven international diplomacy to the secretariat, a number of member states have expressed concern that his nomination would bring an excess of American influence to the UN.

Few countries have publicly endorsed a candidate, but there is rampant speculation that Annan's successor will be a political heavyweight hailing from an Asian country. Within the General Assembly itself, there is an understanding that it is now Asia's turn to fill the post. At this stage, the favourites include the only three declared Asian candidates: Thailand's deputy Prime Minister, Surakiart Sathirathai, (5-2); South Korea's foreign minister, Ban Ki-moon, (5-2); and Sri Lanka's Jayantha Dhanapala, (7-2).

Other candidates include Poland's outgoing President Aleksander Kwasniewski with 10-1 odds and the exiled leader of Myanmar's National League for Democracy, Aung San Suu Kyi with 12-1 odds. Nelson Mandela, the former President of South Africa and human rights activist, is a sentimental favourite and rounds out the list with 25-1 odds, but many observers believe he is too frail to take office.

"There may be a Clinton in the White House again, Hillary that is, but bettors are telling us there's no way we will see two Clinton's wielding such power," said an expert. "Everybody bets, so, with Clinton moving down in the odds and the race now wide open, it's a great time to gamble on who is most likely to lead the UN into the next decade."

Latest Odds on who will replace Kofi Annan as UN Secretary General: 

Aung San Suu Kyi (Burma) 12-1
Surakiart Sathirathai (Thailand) 5-2
Ban Ki-moon (South Korea) 5-2
Jayantha Dhanapala (Sri Lanka) 7-2
Anwar Ibrahim (Malaysia) 8-1
Bill Clinton (USA) 10-1
Aleksander Kwasniewski (Poland) 10-1
Ashraf Ghani (Afghanistan) 12-1
Vaclav Havel (Czech Republic) 25-1
Nelson Mandela (South Africa) 25-1 

It looks like world cup prediction....
Daw Suu is the Brazil, if it is football.... :) 

May be we all should lobby for Daw Suu, It may be the best option for her and her two children. And once UN Secretary General is on our side for 100%, our cause would be publitisized free of charge and be achieved with the rocket pace progress. After all she had experience working in UN HQ and could be accepted by US EU and most of the world. 

Shwe Ba (BURMA DIGEST) 

Note: I am not promoting betting but I think and believe that to put mathematical value to any scenario to forecast the possibility with a sound mathematical ground is a good logic. Lets say.. if we estimated or focussed that: based on cloud, wind condition, humidity and the barometric pressure of air, the probability of the rain is 8-10 or 80% sure, it is quite interesting.

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