Burmese Military Junta and it Prospect since 1988

Today, Burmese dictator is domestically much stronger and internationally weaker but shrewdly smarter in dealing with its political opponents. According to the Asian Development Bank Report 2006, the government boost a growth rate of some 13% but with a staggeringly higher rate of poverty one can witness in the streets of Burma.  Will the junta succeed in establishing it's legitimacy in the international political arena?   

In today's world - Middle East is ablaze, oil prices near record highs, the American economy cooling and the climate warming, it is hard to get excited about the beaching of trade talks in contrast to the collapse of communism 1988 with the events marked by Soviet troops leaving Afghanistan, global economic recession hitting the Margret Thacter's government out of power, swift of democracy spreading from Burma, China  to many East European countries which culminated in wiping the communist dictator Nicolai Chauchesku of Romania off the power by mobs.

The dictators of Burma do seem to buck the global political trend without changing it's outlook. General Saw Maung taking over the power after the democracy summer in 1988 branded the demonstrators as elements of the Burma Communist Party. His paranoia over his links with communists or socialists stretched as far as challenging to sue Bertil Lintner then Far Eastern Economic Review columnist for branding his government as a Marxist government. No doubt, General Saw Maung remained loyal to Ne Win but he abandoned all links with the National Union Party (former ruling party known as Burma Socialist Programme Party). 

The State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) did not succeed in asserting it's legitimacy in the international political arena by branding the country's democratic forces and uprising as an engineering work of the Burma Communist Party.  General Saw Maung set up a media team with top brass military personals to woe the western media on their side. It flirted with the world media by having weekly regular briefings. SLORC allowed the foreign journalists to enter the country officially in contrary to banning of all foreign journalists from entering the country during Ne Win's rule.

SLORC with intense financial difficulties to run the country opened the economy to private sectors. It generated a grass root support from the traders who previously operated in the black economy under Ne Win's command economy. The traders also funded the student's uprising to overthrow Ne Win's government in 1988.  Private industrialists which remotely existed during command economy began diminish with the influx of imports from traders. The state owned industries went on joint ventures with foreign investors which generated revenue for the military to run the country.

The booming East Asian economies starving with natural recourses seized the opportunity of economic liberalisation in Burma to overcome their resource deficit by forging a better relationship with the Military junta. India stood alone in the region supporting the democratic forces of Burma. Then Congress Party of India in power awaiting to support it's traditional ally U Nu. Military regime with outmoded military technology enhanced it's relationship with China to modernise it's army and offset the treat posed by India's support for democracy in Burma. Now, India is said to be repairing it's past damage by improving it's relationship with the military junta.        

The reports emerging from some intelligence circle suggest that General Khin Nyunt and his associates were out-posted due to their strong affiliation with China. The current SPDC junta has mastered the art of using it's secrecy to manipulate the intelligence community in the region. The intelligence communities within the region compete amongst themselves on their access to military junta's secrets. The current global energy crisis has led the regional governments to harmonise and enhance their relationship with the junta.

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi released from the house arrest in 1995 called for an economic sanction from the world governments to which western government supported and it continued to isolate the junta.  In order to break free from the western isolation the military junta has managed to use it's grass root support amongst western academics. It also successfully managed to split the Burmese democracy movement in abroad into pro and anti sanction. The democracy has almost turned into a sanction issue. The poverty generated by the mismanagement of self sufficient economic activities of the country has become a tool for the junta and it's grass roots supporters abroad to accuse Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's calls for sanction.

The frequent arrest of pro democracy leader Aung Sa Suu Kyi is used as a bargaining power by the regime with the international community. It is uneasy to contemplate the prospect for democracy movement if Aung San Suu Kyi is to step aside from her persistent fight to establish democracy in the country. The movement urgently needs a charismatic organic leader if it is to survive beyond Suu Kyi's life time. The democratic forces of the country in exile are failing to address the problems of "absolute poverty" and daily lives in Burma. Aung San Suu Kyi evidently seems to connect to the people and their lives and it appears to be the sole reason for her arrest.

The grass root supporters of junta in abroad are successfully lobbying at EU level. In UK, pro junta camps have manage to get platform air their views against the movement under the liberty of free speech. Their continual success is bound to have negative affect upon the democracy awareness raising. The junta can successfully assert it's legitimacy in the internal arena.

Ko Sala 

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Comments

Sallie Latch said _

                   An excellent article for some historical background and current situation.
 

Moin said _

                 Nobody can fight for freedom staying in a foreign land. Ironically none of the Burmese leaders are ready to fight for democracy from within the country. Running web sites from foreign lands and fighting for a democracy from within Burma are entirely different things. While it is pretty easy go for a media war it needs courage to fight the JUNTA from within. As soon as the leaders in exile get back to Burma and launch a coordinated move, the better for DASSK who has been single handedly carrying the burden of the Pro-democracy move. The poor lady needs more visible support from the senior leadership.

Saw Winston Taw said _

Easier said than done when you said, "it needs courage to fight the JUNTA from within", unless you want the whole opposition group to be in jail and the opposition completely stifled. The time for action is not ripe yet. It WILL come, but sooner than most people think.

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