17.09.2006

Bloodless Revolution

Recently Burmese military regime has announced that the sham ‘National Convention’ will be resumed on 10 October 2006. Many people believe that the coming national convention will finalize the setting of guidelines for the new Constitution. According to the SPDC’s self-claimed ‘road map’, after the completion of the National Convention, a referendum, allowing the population to vote for its acceptance or rejection, will be held. Perhaps it will be an opportunity as well as a challenge for Burmese pro-democracy political parties including the National League for Democracy and other ethnic political parties, organizations and activists. Maybe it will lead to real democratization in Burma. Hopefully it will!

Whether Burmese pro-democracy groups like it or not, the current Burmese political playground is controlled by the SPDC; they still hold the upper hand in this game. It is a reality, and it is important to acknowledge the reality.  In drawing up a strategy for future, this reality must be taken into account.  

In 2004, the SPDC reconvened the sham ‘National Convention’ which was aborted in 1996. It has been criticized by pro-democracy groups and the international community.  The major opposition political party, the National League for Democracy (NLD) which won in 1990 general elections, walked out from the Convention in 1995.  Other elected ethnic political parties, which were denied participation in the Convention, have also boycotted it as representatives for the Convention are hand-picked by the junta.  There is a lack of transparency and freedom to discuss issues in the Convention.  For instance, 90 representatives from ceasefire groups attended the convention and submitted proposals.  The SPDC generals did not take interest in the proposals.  Nor did they keep them as records.  They did not give any comments on the proposals.  They just claimed that the proposals will be discussed later.  Despite this the SPDC succeeded in carrying their sham national convention on as a part of their road map.

Recently, ASEAN leaders went to Burma and urged the Burmese generals to accelerate democratization in Burma through personal contact (personal diplomacy) rather than official diplomacy. Moreover , Burmese people are longing  for changes because  their daily affairs are becoming more and more miserable; soaring  inflation  is making it very difficult to make ends meet and  education and health services are deteriorating more than ever before. If people could see any prospective political movement bringing about changes, no doubt, they would actively take part in it. However, they are more likely to take part in a bloodless revolution rather than a bloody revolution.            

Now that the SPDC needs to finalize their sham National Convention due to mounting international pressure, particularly by ASEAN and the United States,  threatening to submit the Burma issue to the United Nations Security Council’s agenda.

According to the SPDC road map, the next step after the National Convention is a referendum. This will be a good opportunity for pro-democracy groups; they should use it wisely for democratization in Burma. Of course, the SPDC never give up their goals very easily, they will try to manipulate the referendum. However, when the SPDC declare their intention to hold the referendum, there are two possible steps to win democratization in Burma. 

For the first step, pro-democracy groups should not boycott it, but rather they should urge people to actively vote in it and record a ‘NO’ vote, forcing to rewrite the SPDC’s draft constitution or the oppositions call for dialogue between the SPDC and oppositions to prepare for genuine national convention .On the other hand if the pro-democracy groups take part in the referendum, they should ask the SPDC, for the referendum to be free and fair, and also ask the international community such as ASEAN, EU and the United Nations monitor the referendum. If so, the referendum could become a bloodless revolution and an example of one kind of people power for democratization in Burma.

However, the SPDC generals are likely to deny the result. In this case, people with awareness, should not hesitate to step onto the street and call for dialogue between the SPDC and other political forces led by the NLD. Moreover, since the 1980s, many military regimes around the world have split among themselves when they faced a crisis that lead to negotiation with the opposition because some pragmatic generals, who really love the country, would stand up along with the people and force the other generals to negotiate with the opposition, for the benefit of the people. Therefore, the SPDC’s road map’s next step – referendum- will lead to political changes in Burma – as a form of bloodless revolution. 

Myint Zaw

[Editor's note: Opinions expressed by authors are their personal views, but do not necessarily represent the stand-point of BURMA DIGEST.]

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