25.02.2007
Junta’s Hidden Agenda
_ By Cedric
The Burmese military regime has armed forces four times the size of those of the United Kingdom, said to be the fifth richest nation in the world. Manpower is not, however, the most significant factor in determining the use it envisages for its large army.
The increasingly sophisticated and costly Burmese arsenal of military equipment is destined primarily neither for counter-insurgency nor for riot control. It is for the battlefield, for defence or for offence.
The regime's well-publicised paranoia about a US attack procures for it a twofold advantage. For internal consumption, it is a propaganda ruse, of a well-established kind, that helps to unite behind it the military caste and other servitors whose loyalty might be inclined to waiver. More importantly, it is a smokescreen to hide its intentions from its neighbours.
The regime's behaviour (a better guide than its public statements) indicates that, with the backing of the Chinese and Russian governments and tacit support from others, it believes it has little to fear from the United States — least of all now that the US is trying to extricate itself from the disastrous imbroglio in Iraq
Who might it have to fear ?
No-one !
It has in mind an offensive strategy. This is somewhat in keeping with Burmese history from which the generals draw inspiration. A cultural factor, not to be overlooked. Against whom might its projected offensive strategy be intended ?
Against neither China nor India, for sure. So the presumption is the target will be weaker nations in the region. If these presumptions are correct, when will it attack ?
The regime will only choose to bare its true face to the outside world when it feels the time is ripe. The moment to do so will be when it is in an unassailable position of military superiority to those it seeks to threaten. If this enables it to get what it wants without firing a shot, it will doubtless be happy to do so. It would be in its nature to employ, also, subversive methods to further the objective of regional hegemony.
The Burmese economy expressed in terms of human welfare is a shambles. Notwithstanding this, expenditure on military equipment and training seems boundless. A government of such narrowly militaristic outlook is a danger to any nation that it may eventually choose to threaten.
Foreign revenues fuel the country's growing military strength, and also pay for technological means of population control to keep the regime in power. Hard currency and foreign business can help the regime to sap the cohesiveness of neighbouring states — the divide-and-rule policy at which it excels.
How ?
By bribery (often disguised as favours and concessions) of individuals in key positions, perhaps even of prime ministers.
And, by creating an economic dependence of segments of the population in the threatened country, so that people intercede with their government to surrender to Burmese pressures and demands, because of the hardships to which they will otherwise be subjected.
Economic ineptitude of successive Burmese military regimes resulted in the country being classified as one of the world's least developed countries. However by 2001 gas sales to neighbouring countries were bringing in billion dollars annually and the balance began to tip heavily in favour of large-scale military expenditure. This has made feasible, but still distant, the goal of regional dominance, which is to be sought by a combination of diplomatic ruse and military might.
The regime's goal is not what it declares to international audiences. It is what is shared amongst the military elite [1], and what can be deduced from its actions and past comportment.
There have been recent suggestions of evidence that the regime is working to develop nuclear weapons. Logically, this would be a mid-term development project, spanning, say, a dozen years, with the end result — if successful — the production of plutonium bombs. The Tatmadaw possesses a tactical delivery capability for such weapons, and may be working on longer range delivery systems in collaboration with North Korea.
Very little time remains for the countries of the region to rouse themselves from their slumbers.
If the suggested scenario happens to be accurate — it is a suggestion that needs to be evaluated in the light of further evidence, which must be sought assiduously — action must be taken years before the Burmese regime has a chance to bring its plans to fruition. For it will be necessary that the threatened countries cooperate to develop or to acquire an effective deterrent. The expense involved will impact upon the living standards of their populations, just as the Burmese generals' dreams of military grandeur have impoverished the Burmese people.
When the ASEAN countries opened the door, not to Burma and the Burmese, but to the Burmese military regime, they admitted into their fold a wild beast of the hyena variety.
Please click here to sign the Petition to UN Security Council to help STOP ATROCITIES in Burma.
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Footnote
[1] _ “We shall be able to seize Bangkok in not more than 10 days. But we cannot do it yet because we are still inferior in all respects. We need to possess nuclear weapons or to have conventional military superiority over neighbouring countries.”…...Vice-Senior-Gen. Maung Aye at the National Defence College, addressing selected officers recently graduated from the Defence Services Academy.
He departed immediately after speaking. The next speech, by Maung Thaung, Minister for Science & Technology and former colonel, included these words: “We are building the 4th Burmese Empire. After we occupy Thailand we shall not slap the Thais with our hands, we shall kick them with our feet.”
Many senior generals share this attitude.
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Comments:
Sai Moon Tai said _
It would be helpful to have the time frame of the above two quotes of Maung Aye and Maung Thaung, and also to have Thai translations of this article published in Thailand.
Cedric replied _
Sorry, no further details are authorized for publication owing to the sensitivity of the issues. You may infer that more is known than can be disclosed. There is as yet no published Thai translation.
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