18.03.2007
Editorial: Nuclear Burma
A threat to regional peace and security?
_ By Taisamyone
Anyone who has looked at the horrific effect of the relatively small atomic bombs used at Hiroshima and Nagasaki will understand the need to prevent the proliferation of nuclear bombs (which are more powerful than atomic bombs). Too many governments around the world see the big bomb as a power symbol for threatening their enemies and deterring aggression against themselves. They are very dangerous weapons that should be eliminated entirely under inspection by relevant UN agencies. While the old powers hold on tightly to their nuclear bombs and missiles as the ultimate weapon or deterrent, new irresponsible totalitarian regimes persist in seeking to join the ‘nuclear club’. Quite rightly, the UN and world opinion is resolute in condemning these developments, rather than supporting their ‘right to defend themselves’ with weapons that have the potential to eliminate all life on the planet.
If there were clear evidence in the public domain that Burma has started a nuclear weapons programme, it would be a serious issues for the UN Security Council, and action similar to that faced by North Korea (although with China’s assistance, the UN sanctions are watered down and ineffective). Even an attempt to develop a nuclear material processing facility could bring about UN concerns similar to those that surround the current Iran debate. If Burma has a nuclear weapons programme then they are keeping it very quiet – but then secrecy, censorship and smokescreen diplomacy are their strengths. If they have a programme, it is kept under wraps. But, then we remember how closely guarded a secret they kept NayPyiDaw until they were ready to move there (a remarkable failure of international intelligence on the regime’s notionally peaceable activities in Burma). It is likely that if the regime is developing a nuclear weapons capability then it will be kept as their utmost top secret, because they understand how quickly the UNSC will react (it took a week of wrangling to censure North Korea last year).
The regime has most of the ingredients for such a programme – materials (Uranium ore, basic processing facilities), missiles, collaborators and the motivation to develop such a capability. What they lack is top scientists and engineers to bring it all together – only so much expertise can be bought in from their friends without compromising their control over the end result. They would also need to import specialist equipment and facilities to produce weapons-grade material, but this doesn’t seem to be an issue for a regime where concealment and censorship are so pronounced.
In 2002, the regime announced a commitment to develop a nuclear research facility for medical purposes and possibly to generate nuclear power, with technical assistance from Russia. Although it is understood that the nuclear reactor has not been delivered, over 2,000 army personnel have been trained in Russia as part of the SPDC programme – probably under the guise of military training rather than nuclear research. Given the heightened alarm over nuclear weapons, Russia may be getting cold feet as they realise the true nuclear ambitions of the regime – they don’t want to be caught red-handed, so to speak!
We may ask why Burma wants a nuclear weapons capability, when all of their operations are internal and making swathes of Burma unusable for centuries isn’t gaining them anything. From a long-term military perspective, the SPDC see China, India and Pakistan as having the capability, and western countries opposed to Burma have their ‘insurance policies’, as the UK called its £20billion replacement for the submarine-based Trident nuclear weapons. Any future threat of military action would be severely hampered if the regime had such weapons, so it would be a deterrent to any UNSC military action – “deterrent” is a term also used to justify such weapons of mass destruction to the people of western countries who find such weapons appalling in power as well as economically draining. The regime’s relationship with India and China is presently cordial enough for them to exchange arms for gas, but a nuclear capability will put the SPDC on equal negotiating terms with their big neighbours – something obviously attractive to the generals’ delusions of grandeur! The regime also have a long standing hatred for their neighbours in Thailand, as they still live vicariously through the past glories of ancient Burmese kings. The capability to threaten Thailand (whose armed forces are much more professional, more effective than the Tatmadaw and would probably win any protracted military engagement, particularly with help from their US friends) would also leave them with the power to negotiate from a position of strength with Thailand and other SE Asian countries as a bully with a very big stick (something that must also appeal to the generals).
There are of course counter arguments about the regime’s intentions. The regime's public declarations are that they have no intentions of developing nuclear weapons (but how often have they lied?), they have supported international and regional non-proliferation treaties and may in any case of baulked at the costs and the reaction from the sane world (those countries that abhor the development and use of nuclear weapons). Some observers have also suggested that a few of Burma’s pro-democracy groups have seized on the US led invasion of Iraq because of the “evidence” of weapons of mass destruction – false evidence based on information supplied by Iraqi dissidents who wanted to depose Saddam Hussein. Thus, the ‘go to war to stop WMDs’ ruse has shot its bolt, and won’t rouse a ‘not so gullible a second time’ US government to action. Pursuing false allegations too strongly could in fact damage the pro-democracy movement’s credibility. In the short term at lest, with no hard tangible evidence of the regime’s involvement with a nuclear weapons programme, international opinion is likely to stay away from the argument that the UNSC needs to take action because of this particular threat. Although there has been convincing personal testimony regarding Burma’s growing nuclear programme, there has as yet been no independent verification.
With close links developing between the SPDC regime and many nuclear powers – rogues and mainstream – there seems little doubt that the regime could start a nuclear weapons programme if they wanted to. They have started to gather the pieces together and train people in the right skills, but whether they have actually or intend to plunge into a nuclear weapons programme remains to be demonstrated to the satisfaction of the UN and other bodies that report to the UNSC.
For further information
¨ Burma announces nuclear plans
¨ Top-secret military complex to resume in central Burma, Democratic Voice of Burma, 2005 September 29
¨ Burma’s nuclear ambitions: Progression or threat?
¨ Burma’s Nuclear Program: Dream or Nightmare?
¨ Nuclear Proliferation And Burma - The Hidden Connection
¨ Burma seeks nuclear weapons alliance with N Korea , The Australian, 2006 July 5
¨ Nuclear claims deserve scepticism - Maxmilian Wechsler
¨ Russian Exploring Uranium in Jade Mine , 2007 March 12
QUOTE: HIROSHIMA
“Every year on August 6, the city of Hiroshima holds a Peace Memorial Ceremony to pray for the peaceful repose of the victims, for the abolition of nuclear weapons, and for lasting world peace. During that ceremony, the mayor issues a Peace Declaration directed toward the world at large. As long as the need persists, Hiroshima's mayor will continue to issue these declarations calling for the elimination of nuclear weapons from the face of the earth. This is part of Hiroshima's effort to build a world of genuine and lasting world peace where no population will ever again experience the cruel devastation suffered by Hiroshima and Nagasaki.”
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Comments:
Peter said _
So it's spoken out. During my travel in Myanmar in 2004 , I was talking to two women from Russia, they were teaching army officers in Pyin Oo Lwin in russian language, especially for nuclear physics. I hope the world can stop the crazy ones.
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