Burma's Nuke Take Away

Wrapped with

Mr Khan, Kim Jong II and Kremlin

 

_ by Ko Sala

One may take a bet on extraordinary things. Gambling websites, and more traditional bookies, will give you odds on whether Osama bin Laden will be captured, Elvis will return, or even on the prospect of the universe ceasing to expand. A new item might now be added to the list of the events: that the brutal dictatorship of Burma will go nuclear.  I would certainly bet on the odds for Burma going nuclear if the world power kowtow to the regime.  I do not intent to regurgitate the recent news item relating to Burma but highlighting a series of news events is paramount in establishing the claim that Burma is moving towards possessing nuke weapons.  

A long still standing rumour of Russia-Burma’s nuclear program was confirmed by Russia’s announcement on 15 May 2007 that it will help junta set up nuclear-research reactor.  The reactor is said to be used for civilian purpose.  The Russian atomic energy agency Rosamton vouched to the world in it’s press statement that the project would be under the control of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), UN Nuclear watchdog.  The IEA has not issued any statements relating to Burma’s nuclear ambition.

On the cards it is only a small-scale research program, which Burma says will be used to generate power, presumably to keep the flickering lights on in Rangoon. The plan is to build a 10 megawatt nuclear reactor that uses low enriched uranium. Nevertheless, the secrecy surrounding the generals who rule the country by guns can make one doubt it’s intention of acquiring nuclear technology.  The Russian announcement came during the heights of it’s feud with the US on American missile defensive system in former East European countries.     

Last month, the military junta restored diplomatic relationship with North Korea.  Both countries cut off ties after the North Korean agents set off bombs in Rangoon in 1983 killing nearly all the visiting South Korean officials.  Then Burma Socialist Programme Party (BSPP) responded harshly by terminating it’s diplomatic ties with North Korea.  Why did the military junta reopen a new chapter with Kim Jon II?

An eastern diplomat based in Rangoon made an interesting observation of current military junta and explains that the regime is cunningly carving out it’s administration away from the old Burma Socialist Program Party (BSPP) and built a new power base with a distinct difference from BSPP.  The re-establishment of diplomatic relationship with North Korea defines the regime’s intention to forgive and forget the past with Kim and built ties based on common interests of defying US and the West.  It took more than a decade or so for the Burmese military junta to forge a new relationship with North Korea which acutely coincides with Kim’s nuclear missile test.  The North Korean missile technology is said to be same as Pakistan. 

Kim Jong II allegedly provided missile technology to Pakistan in exchange for nuclear centrifuge know how from Mr A Q Khan, father of modern Pakistan or also allegedly recognized as a key “wheeler and dealer” in international nuclear arms scene.  Mr Khan is reported to have visited Burma in 2003 and Pakistani government denies the visit on his behalf. 

His activities came to the world’s attention after Iran allowed the IAEA inspectors to enter it’s nuclear plant in Natanz.  It was first spotted by Trevor Edwards, the British member of the inspection team identified the centrifuge technology as stolen from Ureno, the Dutch nuclear plant where he also worked for sometime.  Mr Khan was an employee of Ureno in 1970s and allegedly disappeared with technology blue print to Pakistan to mastermind the nuclear weapon program for his country.

The Pakistani government established a special relationship with the military junta within weeks after it seized the power in 1988.  Gen Aslam Beg of Pakistan was one of the first foreign dignitaries to visit General Saw Maung and offered assistance with small arms. Gen Beg also allegedly played a key role in sale of nuclear technology to Iran. 

Join the dots and a scary picture emerges: they must be making nukes.  Why Burma wants to go nuke? If the given facts on it’s nuke programme is true than the junta certainly wishes to join the nuke club in order to put itself in international political arena.  The pro junta lobby in abroad argue that the Western government can stop junta from building the nuke by embracing the regime.

The current Burmese nuke programme would probably go ahead with the support on centrifuge from Pakistan, reactor from Russia and missile technology from North Korea.  What America or others will do about Burma’s research programme is unclear.  What really is happening is that China, Russia and another would-be great power, India, are scrabbling to do deals with Burmese regime. Like vultures eyeing carrion, they are salivating over the benighted country's rich natural resources.

The Burmese generals are in the happy position of setting competing powers against one another, while enlisting their help in resisting pressure to restore democracy. In January, Russia and China—both of which have signed big oil and gas deals with Burama—vetoed America's proposed censure of the Burmese regime in the United Nations Security Council.

India used to join the West in demanding democratic change. But the rumours about Chinese military bases, plus India's own thirst for energy, made it forget its principles and start wooing Burmese generals with guns and money. This all takes place behind a figleaf of “constructive engagement”. The junta was said to have been dissatisfied with cheap Chinese arms, so India's sales said to range from artillery to reconnaissance aircraft, will have been most welcome.  The Indian government is also said to be supplying the regime with intelligence on Burmese democracy movement in exile. 

An articulated young Indian diplomat in Burma blames his own government’s foreign policy for supporting democracy in Burma during the early years of current military junta.  He believes that it created mistrust between two governments and he is determined to patch up the damage in relationship.  The reports emerging out of international intelligence circle suggest that India played a major role in demise of deposed General Khin Nyunt.  The Indian government seems to have learnt to live with the insecure military junta which also built relationship with India’s arch enemies like China and Pakistan.

It does not seem to be a right time for a country with cacophony of problems to have nuke weapon.  No doubt, any democratic government comes into power in Burma would continue to build the nuke’s project with nationalistic spirit.  The possession of nuke weapon for a country does not seem to b a proudest achievement as more and more tin pot benign countries like North Korea joining the nuclear club.  I would certainly endorse the future democratic government of Burma go nuke by renting it rather than building one which can dry up country’s economic resources.